Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
49 0x4934…5951 world 327 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,232 (+26%) realized +$10,985 · open +$247
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%154W / 160L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$3,790now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$369
7 days+$223
14 days+$2,187
30 days+$1,224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$9,263
other 17% +$1,184
politics 10% +$9
finance 3% +$210
tech 2% +$45
crypto 1% −$200
sports 1% +$31
economics 0% +$24
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 29% 29% +5.6%
≤30d 64 +3.5% -6.4% 48% 42% -0.8%
≤90d 305 +25.0% +13.1% 48% 41% +13.7%
all 314 +25.2% +13.2% 49% 42% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.2% 42% +13.9%
10% ← realistic here +2.4% 37% +3.0%
15% -7.5% 32% -6.9%
20% -16.6% 23% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$48 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$3,790
Realized+$10,985
Unrealized+$247
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses154 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions13
Markets (closed)314 / 327
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$131
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 72¢ 78¢ $1,606 $1,757 +$150 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 55¢ $901 $926 +$25 (+3%)
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? Yes 66¢ 81¢ $207 $255 +$49 (+23%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 34¢ 40¢ $207 $237 +$30 (+14%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 68¢ 100¢ $102 $149 +$47 (+47%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $111 $102 −$9 (-8%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $113 $88 −$25 (-22%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Yes 27¢ 17¢ $135 $85 −$50 (-37%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $34 $55 +$21 (+62%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-28%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in June? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $702 −$319 -45%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $50 −$30 -60%
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $300 +$600 +200%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $264 −$12 -4%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in June? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +122%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $273 +$75 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $302 −$62 -20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $193 +$168 +87%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $288 −$138 -48%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $84 +$80 +95%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $302 +$117 +39%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $168 +$87 +52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $528 +$89 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $298 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $219 +$15 +7%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 12 $6 +$32 +500%
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $380 +$1,243 +327%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $285 +$148 +52%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $337 +$201 +60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $165 −$49 -30%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $290 −$19 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 09 $94 −$94 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $45 −$32 -71%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$10 +50%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +48%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Jun 05 $92 −$92 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 04 $167 −$167 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 03 $224 +$4 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $220 −$220 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 02 $217 −$51 -24%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 02 $103 −$73 -71%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $200 +$49 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $1,008 −$938 -93%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $360 −$360 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $211 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $25 −$5 -20%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? May 29 $12 −$12 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $508 +$204 +40%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 29 $12 +$3 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 28 $375 +$293 +78%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $140 +$135 +96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $620 +$247 +40%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $52 +$42 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $178 30m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $159 34m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $24 34m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $10 49m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $49 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $106 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $106 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $265 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 78¢ $390 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $371 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $750 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $66 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $54 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $122 9h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 22h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $21 22h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $30 22h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 22h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $22 22h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $40 22h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $68 22h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $91 22h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $91 22h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $17 24h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 24h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 37¢ $28 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,789.71 · official $3,774.24 (match) · 3500 history records