Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4936…08c9 other 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$100 (-0%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 247L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$36
sports 28% −$26
politics 8% −$29
culture 6% −$6
economics 5% −$5
crypto 5% −$6
world 5% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.3% -9.8% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)260 / 260
History coverage142d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 260 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $416 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $123 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $183 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $242 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $502 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $414 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $379 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $690 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $671 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $475 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $194 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $124 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $130 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $224 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $328 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $158 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $304 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $685 −$2 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $250 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $279 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $194 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $86 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $458 $0 +0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $158 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $188 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 08 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $116 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 37m
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 2h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $21 2h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $15 3h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $36 5h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $36 9h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $37 11h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $37 13h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $37 14h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $37 16h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $37 18h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $37 19h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $37 20h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 22h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 23h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $37 27h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $37 29h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $37 33h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $37 34h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $37 37h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 38h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $37 40h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $37 41h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $37 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $37 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $37 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $37 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $37 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $37 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $37 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1555 history records