Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
49 0x4938…5e64 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$120 (-6%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$351
7 days−$155
14 days−$155
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -17.6% -25.5% 50% 30% -18.6%
≤30d 13 -14.0% -22.2% 54% 31% -17.2%
≤90d 13 -14.0% -22.2% 54% 31% -17.2%
all 13 -14.0% -22.2% 54% 31% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 31% -17.2%
10% -29.6% 31% -25.2%
15% -36.4% 31% -32.4%
20% -42.7% 23% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$107 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage18d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$19 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $304 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $214 −$200 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $208 +$154 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $105 +$115 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $207 +$101 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 03 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 01 $104 +$96 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records