Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x493b…6823 crypto 1752 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+0%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%601W / 1159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$123
7 days−$115
14 days−$167
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$18
other 18% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 -3.4% -12.6% 28% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 1218 -0.8% -10.2% 43% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 1760 -0.5% -10.0% 34% 0% -9.9%
all 1760 -0.5% -10.0% 34% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses601 / 1159
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1760 / 1752
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1760 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 1, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $26 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $3 8h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $17 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 10h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $26 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 11h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $26 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $26 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $26 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.03 · official $52.03 (match) · 3500 history records