Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x493e…618f
crypto · 7 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$5,131 +84%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,180 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$876
Trades / day212.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,180
7 days+$5,180
14 days+$5,180
30 days+$5,180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $306 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $359 +$63 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $1,014 +$693 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2,968 +$2,765 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $407 +$467 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1,025 +$1,177 +115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$5,180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $53 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $98 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $187 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $596 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +59.8% +44.5% 100% 71% +66.9%
≤30d 7 +59.8% +44.5% 100% 71% +66.9%
≤90d 7 +59.8% +44.5% 100% 71% +66.9%
all 7 +59.8% +44.5% 100% 71% +66.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover212.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +44.5% 71% +66.9%
10% +30.7% 57% +51.0%
15% ← realistic here +18.1% 57% +36.4%
20% +6.5% 57% +23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 222 history records