Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
49 0x493e…6b24 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$71 (-23%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$87
sports 37% +$17
politics 7% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-60.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -31.0% -37.5% 22% 22% -8.7%
≤30d 9 -31.0% -37.5% 22% 22% -8.7%
≤90d 9 -31.0% -37.5% 22% 22% -8.7%
all 16 -56.8% -60.9% 12% 12% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.9% 12% -36.2%
10% -64.6% 12% -42.3%
15% -68.0% 12% -47.9%
20% -71.2% 12% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -91% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$14 · ×3.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage154d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $29 −$28 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $65 +$63 +97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $15 +$50 +324%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Tran Cam Tu be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Commun Jan 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Luong Cuong be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Commun Jan 21 $28 −$8 -30%
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P Jan 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 27¢ $29 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $129 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $65 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 7h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 8h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 9h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes $5 9h
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes $7 148d
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes $2 148d
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes $3 148d
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? BUY No $9 148d
Will Tran Cam Tu be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Commun BUY Yes $20 151d
Will Tran Cam Tu be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Commun BUY Yes $4 152d
Will Luong Cuong be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Commun SELL Yes $4 152d
Will Luong Cuong be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Commun BUY Yes $15 152d
Will Luong Cuong be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Commun SELL Yes $15 152d
Will Tran Cam Tu be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Commun BUY Yes $5 153d
Will Luong Cuong be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Commun BUY Yes $5 153d
Will Tran Cam Tu be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Commun BUY Yes $8 153d
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P BUY No $25 153d
Will Luong Cuong be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Commun BUY Yes $8 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records