Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:28:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
49 0x493f…9cf0 crypto 61 markets active 3h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%52W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$40
14 days−$38
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$4
other 19% −$31
politics 14% +$2
tech 14% +$16
economics 3% +$1
finance 2% $0
world 2% +$6
culture 0% $0
sports 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -15.8% -23.9% 83% 0% -13.2%
≤90d 12 -7.8% -16.6% 92% 0% -11.2%
all 58 -7.9% -16.7% 90% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -32.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -38.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$15 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses52 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage540d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $130 $130 +$0 (+0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $85 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 11 $230 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? May 30 $223 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, May 29 $35 +$1 +3%
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 29 $280 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 10 $51 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? May 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 10 $160 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 31 to Apr Apr 26 $345 +$1 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 06 $130 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Apr 06 $188 +$1 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 20 $290 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 13 $325 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 09 $370 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 05 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 05 $95 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 05 $180 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18? Jan 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 January 5-11? Jan 18 $325 $0 +0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 11 $365 +$5 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 December 8-14? Dec 29 $250 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 11 $150 +$7 +5%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 11 $75 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1600 in November? Dec 11 $238 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on November 20 Nov 24 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on November 18? Nov 20 $266 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 17 $380 +$2 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 11 $350 +$6 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 October 20-26? Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4,000 on October 9? Oct 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 October 6-12? Oct 25 $325 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 09 $50 +$1 +2%
Trump out as President by September 30? Oct 09 $155 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Oct 09 $160 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 15–August 22? Sep 18 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4800 and $4900 on August 20? Sep 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5300 August 11–17? Aug 20 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 16 $100 +$1 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 16 $268 +$1 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 17 $245 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? Jun 19 $200 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Solana reach $250 in April? May 20 $88 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in April? May 20 $159 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? Apr 23 $226 −$11 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $150 3h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $130 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $86 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 100¢ $231 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $85 20d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $230 20d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $224 23d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $223 24d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, BUY No 97¢ $35 42d
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $280 42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 100¢ $51 57d
Will Solana reach $150 in April? BUY No 100¢ $103 57d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $160 57d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 31 to Apr BUY No 100¢ $345 76d
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY BNK FEARX 81¢ $20 93d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar BUY No 100¢ $130 94d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 96¢ $15 94d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $188 94d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $290 101d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $325 105d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 117d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $370 136d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $95 148d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $180 154d
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18? BUY No 100¢ $100 154d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 99¢ $80 162d
Will Solana reach $160 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $325 162d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $230 175d
Will Solana reach $210 December 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $250 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.21 · official $295.21 (match) · 119 history records