Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:11:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
49 0x493f…fcdb sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$38 (+5%) realized +$43 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$19
other 47% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -3.1% -12.3% 60% 60% -4.6%
≤30d 15 -3.1% -12.3% 60% 60% -4.6%
≤90d 15 -3.1% -12.3% 60% 60% -4.6%
all 15 -3.1% -12.3% 60% 60% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 60% -4.6%
10% -20.7% 60% -13.7%
15% -28.4% 47% -22.0%
20% -35.4% 40% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$39 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 57¢ $65 $60 −$5 (-7%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $33 −$32 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $57 −$56 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $55 +$34 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $43 +$13 +29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 +$93 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$16 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 +$25 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 11m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $66 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 12h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 13¢ $12 16h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 16¢ $21 16h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $57 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $55 35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $36 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $43 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $100 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $23 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.08 · official $64.22 (match) · 27 history records