Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4940…85ad sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$264 (-18%) realized −$170 · open −$94
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%6W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$75
14 days−$270
30 days−$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$179
other 30% −$185
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-51.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -39.2% -45.0% 27% 27% -19.7%
≤30d 26 -46.7% -51.8% 23% 23% -31.0%
≤90d 26 -46.7% -51.8% 23% 23% -31.0%
all 26 -46.7% -51.8% 23% 23% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.8% 23% -31.0%
10% -56.4% 23% -37.6%
15% -60.6% 23% -43.6%
20% -64.5% 23% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$38 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$170
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses6 / 20
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage10d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Yes 10¢ $100 $6 −$94 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 +$42 +83%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 23 $51 +$53 +105%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$88 +172%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $152 −$150 -99%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $102 +$155 +152%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$92 +180%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $33 −$33 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $70 +$65 +93%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 4d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY 16¢ $103 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 17¢ $31 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $20 4d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Croatia 23¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $21 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 10.5 Total Corne BUY 17¢ $102 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $51 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 33¢ $31 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $21 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $152 6d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $51 6d
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 48¢ $51 6d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $51 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $102 6d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 44¢ $31 8d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 8d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $51 8d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 8d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $31 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $33 9d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $51 9d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $51 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $70 10d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 10d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.05 · official $6.05 (match) · 35 history records