Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:40:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4946…dae5 crypto 343 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (216 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate97%332W / 11L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day216.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (216 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 343 +2.8% -7.0% 97% 13% -7.8%
≤30d 343 +2.8% -7.0% 97% 13% -7.8%
≤90d 343 +2.8% -7.0% 97% 13% -7.8%
all 343 +2.8% -7.0% 97% 13% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover216.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 13% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 1% -16.6%
15% -24.0% 0% -24.7%
20% -31.4% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses332 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)343 / 343
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day216.3
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 343 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 760 history records