Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x4946…4004 sports 482 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14,140 (+5%) realized +$14,697 · open −$557
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%252W / 215L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$546per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$3,338est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$3,095now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,710
7 days−$3,205
14 days−$7,893
30 days−$2,018
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$11,214
other 15% +$930
world 0% −$750
crypto 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -7.7% -16.5% 49% 47% -22.1%
≤30d 184 -1.8% -11.2% 52% 51% -12.1%
≤90d 467 +2.7% -7.0% 54% 52% -5.1%
all 467 +2.7% -7.0% 54% 52% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 52% -5.1%
10% -15.9% 52% -14.2%
15% -24.1% 49% -22.5%
20% -31.5% 46% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$700) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$427 vs −$445 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$3,095
Realized+$14,697
Unrealized−$557
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses252 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$3,338
Open positions14
Markets (closed)467 / 482
History coverage89d
Avg bet$546
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $750 $859 +$109 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $750 $625 −$125 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $555 $421 −$134 (-24%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $350 $337 −$13 (-4%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 52¢ 52¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $147 +$47 (+47%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ 46¢ $150 $120 −$30 (-20%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $96 −$54 (-36%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 56¢ 32¢ $150 $84 −$66 (-44%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $35 −$65 (-65%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) FURIA 46¢ $147 $0 −$147 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $71 +$162 +226%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $558 +$298 +53%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $168 +$125 +74%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $152 +$90 +60%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $397 +$515 +130%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $155 −$153 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $396 +$368 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $178 +$187 +105%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $213 +$9 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $177 −$175 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $206 −$203 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $82 +$35 +43%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $253 +$138 +55%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $253 +$164 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $253 +$171 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $355 +$282 +79%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $322 +$764 +238%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $58 +$30 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $761 −$750 -99%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 15 $152 −$18 -12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $355 +$359 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $354 −$350 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $354 −$350 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $353 −$350 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $395 −$390 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $355 −$350 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $355 +$318 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $408 −$400 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $509 −$500 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $354 −$350 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $355 +$318 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $355 +$305 +86%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $355 +$282 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $356 +$440 +124%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $355 +$247 +70%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $178 −$175 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $354 −$350 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $354 −$350 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 14 $354 +$211 +60%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $354 −$12 -4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $355 −$350 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $355 −$350 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $355 −$350 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 14 $354 −$350 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $355 +$347 +98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $709 −$700 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $354 −$350 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $856 56m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $152 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $152 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 56¢ $152 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland w BUY 57¢ $51 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland w BUY 57¢ $355 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $152 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $355 2h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $48 2h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $102 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $293 3h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 30¢ $20 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $47 7h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 30¢ $51 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $122 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 96¢ $912 17h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $20 19h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $111 19h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $23 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $356 19h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $152 19h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $152 19h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 56¢ $222 22h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $35 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $178 22h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $178 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $41 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $355 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,094.99 · official $3,494.99 · 1028 history records