Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:40:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
49 0x4948…08bd sports 372 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,904 (-4%) realized −$8,785 · open −$119
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%157W / 208L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$541per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,756now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$917
7 days−$67
14 days+$4,297
30 days+$4,297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$7,341
sports 29% −$16,223
other 14% −$1,796
politics 6% +$997
economics 2% +$141
finance 1% +$482
tech 1% +$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -40.4% -46.1% 30% 30% -10.2%
≤30d 11 -26.2% -33.3% 36% 36% +22.4%
≤90d 162 -91.4% -92.2% 4% 4% -58.7%
all 365 -4.3% -13.4% 43% 38% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 38% -13.5%
10% -21.7% 32% -21.8%
15% -29.3% 29% -29.4%
20% -36.2% 27% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +62% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$261 vs −$239 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$2,756
Realized−$8,785
Unrealized−$119
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses157 / 208
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions7
Markets (closed)365 / 372
History coverage248d
Avg bet$541
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $1,000 $894 −$106 (-11%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $500 $538 +$38 (+8%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 59¢ 56¢ $500 $479 −$21 (-4%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $275 $274 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $103 −$25 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5,000 +$942 +19%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$241 +119%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $223 −$220 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $510 −$500 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,014 +$845 +83%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 13 $506 −$500 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $507 −$500 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 11 $3,782 +$4,364 +115%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 02 $7,372 −$7,372 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Apr 02 $100 −$98 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 02 $1,000 −$105 -10%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $7,902 +$2,001 +25%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $59 −$59 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 01 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 01 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 01 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $92 −$92 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) Apr 01 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $62 −$62 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Apr 01 $79 −$79 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $210 −$210 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $194 −$194 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Apr 01 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winner Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 01 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $62 −$62 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs DRX - Game 4 Winner Apr 01 $121 −$121 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $500 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 28h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 28h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $77 28h
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $77 28h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 80¢ $1,010 30h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 30h
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 89¢ $100 37h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $203 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $153 3d
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $223 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5,000 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $510 5d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 43¢ $203 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 54¢ $507 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 54¢ $507 6d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 62¢ $506 6d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 51¢ $507 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 6d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 39¢ $394 78d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 19¢ $100 78d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 42¢ $201 78d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 44¢ $200 78d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $895 78d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 48¢ $3,078 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,755.65 · official $2,755.74 (match) · 1364 history records