Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:44:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x4948…c260 other 72 markets active 3h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$54 (+0%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate24%17W / 54L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 67% −$14
politics 15% −$11
other 11% −$5
tech 2% $0
sports 2% +$82
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 +4.1% -5.8% 16% 5% -8.9%
≤90d 59 +6.6% -3.6% 25% 15% -8.0%
all 71 +5.3% -4.7% 24% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 13% -9.3%
10% -13.9% 13% -18.0%
15% -22.2% 13% -25.9%
20% -29.8% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×5.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses17 / 54
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage591d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $58 $0 -0%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $285 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 18 $7 +$6 +79%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $7 +$5 +65%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $144 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $276 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $134 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $286 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 06 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $134 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 26 $130 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $145 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 25 $145 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 25 $144 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $130 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $132 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 23 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 23 $131 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $138 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $144 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $138 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $142 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $143 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 11 $46 −$1 -2%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $5 +$4 +83%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $11 +$8 +70%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 2h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $57 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 5d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $30 6d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 7d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 10d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 10d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 13d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 14d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 16d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 17d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 20d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 23d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.83 · official $56.83 (match) · 281 history records