Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
49 0x494e…b471 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$265 (+7%) realized +$265 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,262per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$1,037
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +9.5% -0.9% 67% 67% -34.3%
≤30d 3 +9.5% -0.9% 67% 67% -34.3%
≤90d 3 +9.5% -0.9% 67% 67% -34.3%
all 3 +9.5% -0.9% 67% 67% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 67% -34.3%
10% -10.4% 33% -40.6%
15% -19.0% 33% -46.3%
20% -27.0% 33% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$1,314 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$265
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,262
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 +$24 +77%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,032 −$1,314 -65%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,724 +$253 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 56¢ $31 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 31¢ $718 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,421 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $609 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $507 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,014 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $203 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.57 · official $53.57 (match) · 9 history records