Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:26:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
49 0x4950…3ebd other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4,654 (-38%) realized −$4,608 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$760per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$421
7 days−$92
14 days−$4,694
30 days−$4,694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$5,052
sports 4% +$312
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +13.7% +2.9% 67% 50% -11.8%
≤30d 15 +8.0% -2.2% 67% 47% -45.1%
≤90d 15 +8.0% -2.2% 67% 47% -45.1%
all 15 +8.0% -2.2% 67% 47% -45.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 47% -45.1%
10% -11.6% 40% -50.3%
15% -20.1% 33% -55.1%
20% -28.0% 7% -59.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$1,204 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$4,608
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage10d
Avg bet$760
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 58¢ $200 $154 −$46 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $502 −$500 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $502 +$79 +16%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $601 +$51 +8%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $130 +$475 +365%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $427 −$423 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $338 +$162 +48%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $118 −$115 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $313 +$149 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $94 −$92 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$58 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $280 +$20 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $237 +$108 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,112 −$4,891 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,005 +$179 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 30h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 92¢ $601 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $130 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $427 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $101 3d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $118 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $338 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $462 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $94 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $313 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 93¢ $280 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $237 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $222 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $4,110 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $3,005 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.95 · official $164.47 · 28 history records