Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4953…f581 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$4
other 36% +$6
politics 9% −$1
economics 6% +$1
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 25 -0.8% -10.3% 44% 8% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 8% -7.6%
10% -18.9% 4% -16.4%
15% -26.7% 4% -24.5%
20% -33.9% 4% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.6 per $1 lost it wins $7.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage371d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $27 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Dec 27 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 24 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July? Jun 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +66%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? Jun 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be from another party? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will River Plate win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 13 $19 $0 -0%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 12 $24 +$4 +16%
Will Joaquin Niemann win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 11 at 5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $31 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $27 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $21 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $9 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $27 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $18 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $21 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $9 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $30 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $30 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 7d
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? SELL Yes $0 172d
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? SELL No 99¢ $33 358d
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $5 359d
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes $0 359d
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes $0 359d
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? BUY No 93¢ $5 363d
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July? SELL No 96¢ $5 363d
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July? BUY No 97¢ $5 363d
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 364d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.94 · official $29.94 (match) · 92 history records