Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4954…8914 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%49W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -1.9% -11.3% 95% 3% -13.3%
≤30d 38 -1.9% -11.3% 95% 3% -13.3%
≤90d 38 -1.9% -11.3% 95% 3% -13.3%
all 52 -2.4% -11.7% 94% 4% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 4% -13.8%
10% -20.1% 0% -22.0%
15% -27.8% 0% -29.6%
20% -34.9% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$25 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses49 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage248d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $17 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3AM ET Oct 18 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Oct 18 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 2PM ET Oct 18 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 10AM ET Oct 17 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 8AM ET Oct 17 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 6AM ET Oct 17 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Oct 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Oct 16 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Oct 16 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Oct 16 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4AM ET Oct 16 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Oct 16 $16 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $32 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $22 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $22 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $19 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $19 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $18 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $17 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records