Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:34:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x4954…a216 other 21 markets active 5d ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$94 (-3%) realized −$69 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$125
14 days−$265
30 days−$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$43
crypto 4% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +34.6% +21.8% 80% 80% +15.3%
≤30d 12 -23.4% -30.7% 50% 42% -24.0%
≤90d 17 -12.4% -20.8% 53% 47% -13.8%
all 17 -12.4% -20.8% 53% 47% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 47% -13.8%
10% -28.3% 47% -22.0%
15% -35.3% 41% -29.5%
20% -41.6% 29% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$80 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage54d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $100 $87 −$12 (-12%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 −$90 -90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $501 +$30 +6%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 20 $512 −$34 -7%
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 05 $30 +$22 +73%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 05 $102 +$30 +29%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 04 $200 +$149 +74%
Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 10d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 10d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $531 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $501 13d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 22d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 22d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $478 36d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $512 36d
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 20¢ $52 51d
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 51d
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 45¢ $349 52d
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 76¢ $102 52d
Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 58d
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 58d
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 25¢ $200 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.93 · official $274.93 (match) · 54 history records