Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4954…d77b crypto 709 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,481 (-11%) realized −$6,481 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate65%538W / 286L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day85.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,182
7 days−$8,108
14 days−$9,853
30 days−$9,589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,363
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 240 -48.0% -52.9% 40% 38% -69.3%
≤30d 779 -14.9% -23.0% 65% 64% -23.3%
≤90d 824 -13.9% -22.1% 65% 64% -22.4%
all 824 -13.9% -22.1% 65% 64% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 64% -22.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 37% -29.8%
15% -36.4% 9% -36.6%
20% -42.6% 1% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$69 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,481
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses538 / 286
Open positions0
Markets (closed)824 / 709
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$82
Trades / day85.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 824 Trades
no open positions (227 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $289 −$289 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $382 −$382 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $270 −$270 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $358 −$358 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $162 −$162 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $38 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records