Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
49 0x4957…ef96 sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 349d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,753 (-11%) realized −$1,764 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%39W / 29L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$335
7 days−$2,643
14 days−$2,643
30 days−$2,643
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$849
other 36% −$2,400
crypto 2% −$270
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -29.6% -36.3% 30% 30% -51.5%
≤30d 10 -29.6% -36.3% 30% 30% -51.5%
≤90d 34 -6.0% -14.9% 56% 56% -22.2%
all 68 -5.1% -14.1% 57% 57% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 57% -20.0%
10% -22.4% 54% -27.7%
15% -29.9% 47% -34.7%
20% -36.7% 32% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$249 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

349d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized−$1,764
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses39 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage349d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $60 $36 −$24 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $352 −$350 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$15 +188%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $274 −$270 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $608 −$600 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $253 +$144 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,114 −$1,100 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,028 −$2,000 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,019 +$1,613 +158%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 16 $507 +$436 +86%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics May 14 $508 +$556 +109%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 12 $303 +$180 +60%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees May 06 $303 −$300 -99%
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 06 $202 +$110 +55%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees May 05 $202 +$101 +50%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 29 $202 −$200 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 29 $101 +$53 +52%
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 19 $100 +$73 +73%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 15 $100 −$99 -99%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 12 $100 −$99 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 12 $100 −$99 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 12 $200 +$114 +57%
Raptors vs. Knicks Apr 11 $500 +$208 +42%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 10 $50 +$28 +57%
76ers vs. Rockets Apr 10 $50 +$30 +60%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 10 $100 +$65 +65%
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 09 $50 −$49 -99%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 09 $50 −$49 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $100 +$65 +65%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Mar 27 $300 +$49 +16%
Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 25 $200 +$60 +30%
Warriors vs. Celtics Mar 23 $300 +$53 +18%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Mar 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 17 $50 +$59 +117%
Suns vs. Celtics Mar 17 $200 +$56 +28%
Pistons vs. Raptors Mar 16 $200 +$276 +138%
Suns vs. Raptors Mar 15 $100 +$56 +56%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Mar 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Mar 12 $70 +$105 +150%
Bulls vs. Warriors Mar 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 10 $200 +$82 +41%
76ers vs. Hawks Mar 09 $200 +$86 +43%
Magic vs. Timberwolves Mar 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Pacers vs. Lakers Mar 07 $200 +$50 +25%
Mavericks vs. Magic Mar 06 $300 +$131 +44%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-02-07? Mar 05 $200 +$48 +24%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Mar 04 $400 +$119 +30%
Hornets vs. Celtics Mar 04 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $61 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $352 4h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $91 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $274 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $608 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $396 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $253 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,114 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2,028 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,019 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 53¢ $507 32d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics BUY St. Louis Cardinals 47¢ $508 34d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 62¢ $303 37d
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 65¢ $303 42d
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $202 43d
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 66¢ $202 44d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 61¢ $202 48d
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 65¢ $101 50d
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 100¢ $173 58d
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 57¢ $100 58d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 67¢ $100 63d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 75¢ $100 66d
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ $100 66d
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $200 67d
Raptors vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 70¢ $500 68d
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 62¢ $50 69d
Lakers vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 63¢ $50 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.11 · official $171.11 (match) · 119 history records