Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x495a…def7 politics 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$968per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% −$90
economics 7% −$1
other 3% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 26 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 0% -9.8%
all 26 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$935) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage71d
Avg bet$968
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,782 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $847 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,707 −$3 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,566 −$4 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $857 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,784 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $296 −$57 -19%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $915 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 12 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $920 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $933 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $933 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $935 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $936 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $937 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $47 24h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $842 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $843 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $843 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $844 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $845 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $846 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $844 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $846 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $845 16d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $847 16d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $845 21d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $847 21d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $848 22d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $849 23d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $854 24d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $855 26d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $850 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $851 28d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $850 30d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $852 31d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $856 31d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $857 32d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $856 34d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $858 34d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $858 36d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $859 36d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $239 38d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $296 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.84 · official $34.84 (match) · 104 history records