Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
49 0x495c…c9ea sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,376 (+17%) realized +$3,880 · open −$504
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$577per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$3,580now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$4,041
other 47% +$7,083
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +8.0% -2.2% 53% 53% +10.4%
≤30d 32 +8.0% -2.2% 53% 53% +10.4%
≤90d 32 +8.0% -2.2% 53% 53% +10.4%
all 32 +8.0% -2.2% 53% 53% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.2% 53% +10.4%
10% -11.6% 53% -0.2%
15% ← realistic here -20.1% 53% -9.8%
20% -28.0% 44% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$523 vs −$357 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$3,580
Realized+$3,880
Unrealized−$504
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage5d
Avg bet$577
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 89¢ 90¢ $3,560 $3,580 +$20 (+1%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score No 75¢ 0¢ $504 $0 −$504 (-100%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 28 $405 +$187 +46%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $257 −$254 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $115 +$125 +108%
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 27 $82 −$81 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $2,639 −$2,639 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $588 −$588 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $441 −$441 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $402 +$196 +49%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $174 −$171 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $118 +$67 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $120 +$78 +65%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $114 +$164 +144%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $390 −$390 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $58 −$58 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $208 +$203 +98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4,693 +$2,007 +43%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $140 −$137 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3,005 +$4,565 +152%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $57 +$106 +186%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $191 −$8 -4%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $243 +$192 +79%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $70 +$105 +150%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $162 +$178 +109%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $301 +$212 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $223 +$208 +93%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $83 +$105 +127%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $238 +$203 +85%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score SELL No 76¢ $6 36m
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 75¢ $478 38m
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $32 38m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $1,769 48m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $109 48m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $52 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $524 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $8 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $81 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $405 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $41 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $376 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $40 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $155 1h
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? BUY No 68¢ $381 3h
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? BUY No 65¢ $4 3h
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? BUY No 65¢ $20 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Panama 58¢ $257 5h
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? BUY No 44¢ $82 11h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Michal Oleksiejczuk 51¢ $528 11h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Michal Oleksiejczuk 51¢ $2,111 11h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Andrey Pulyaev 37¢ $588 12h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $4 13h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $10 13h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Theodor Berggren 18¢ $21 13h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Theodor Berggren 18¢ $1 13h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $14 13h
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, BUY Theodor Berggren 18¢ $199 13h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 48¢ $23 14h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 48¢ $92 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,580.35 · official $3,580.35 (match) · 185 history records