Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:53:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
49 0x495c…b419 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$13 (+39%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$6
other 45% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+58.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +74.8% +58.1% 100% 100% +55.1%
≤30d 3 +74.8% +58.1% 100% 100% +55.1%
≤90d 3 +74.8% +58.1% 100% 100% +55.1%
all 3 +74.8% +58.1% 100% 100% +55.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +58.1% 100% +55.1%
10% +43.0% 100% +40.2%
15% +29.2% 100% +26.7%
20% +16.5% 100% +14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +75% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 78¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 75¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 +$3 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $3 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.99 · official $14.99 (match) · 9 history records