Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:26:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x495d…a106
crypto · 217 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$95 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$136 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses107 / 110
Open positions0
Markets (closed)217 / 217
History coverage60d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 217 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$13
14 days+$14
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $116 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $111 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $95 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $75 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $55 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $57 +$33 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $66 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$22 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $38 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $36 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $36 −$6 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +1.4% -8.3% 71% 25% -9.1%
≤30d 109 -10.6% -19.1% 63% 24% -9.6%
≤90d 217 -17.9% -25.8% 49% 27% -12.6%
all 217 -17.9% -25.8% 49% 27% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 27% -12.6%
10% -32.9% 20% -21.0%
15% -39.4% 18% -28.6%
20% -45.3% 14% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 732 history records