Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:14:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4965…0d70 crypto 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$56 (-5%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%43W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$75
14 days+$75
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$15
crypto 31% −$90
other 4% −$31
world 2% −$20
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +194.1% +166.1% 54% 54% +83.9%
≤30d 23 +93.4% +75.0% 43% 43% -8.6%
≤90d 125 -2.7% -11.9% 34% 34% -22.8%
all 125 -2.7% -11.9% 34% 34% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 34% -22.8%
10% -20.4% 34% -30.2%
15% -28.1% 32% -36.9%
20% -35.1% 30% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses43 / 82
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage48d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions (71 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$10 +324%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 +$16 +320%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +99%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +249%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$17 +1666%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -96%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 17 $15 −$5 -33%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 17 $20 +$30 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 17 $10 +$10 +92%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 17 $10 +$9 +87%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 13 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 13 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 12 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 12 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 12 $5 +$5 +93%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 12 $50 +$19 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 11 $3 −$1 -32%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 2 Winner May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 1 Winner May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 10 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner May 10 $10 +$17 +165%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner May 10 $10 +$11 +109%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $80 +$24 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 10 $20 −$10 -49%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -96%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 09 $20 −$9 -43%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner May 09 $18 +$24 +134%
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 09 $24 −$2 -9%
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 09 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 1h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 2h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $5 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $10 4h
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $5 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 6h
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 6h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 23¢ $10 10h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 16d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 63¢ $51 21d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY DN SOOPers $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 29d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 45¢ $20 29d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 10¢ $5 29d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 91¢ $18 29d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 50¢ $10 29d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $50 29d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 40¢ $20 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records