Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:32:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4966…bc05 world 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate57%16W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$2
other 10% −$4
politics 7% +$4
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 13 -0.6% -10.1% 54% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 -0.6% -10.1% 54% 0% -9.2%
all 28 +2.5% -7.3% 57% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 4% -9.4%
10% -16.2% 4% -18.1%
15% -24.3% 4% -26.0%
20% -31.7% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage477d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 85¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $84 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $77 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $43 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $4 −$1 -22%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $37 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $5 $0 +9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 10 $9 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 29 $3 +$4 +106%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Jets draft a QB in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 19 $11 −$1 -12%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 19 $11 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 24 $12 $0 +4%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 20 $17 −$4 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $2 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $2 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $2 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $2 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $11 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $19 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $42 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $42 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $42 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $42 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $42 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $8 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $10 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $29 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $39 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $42 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $42 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $4 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $33 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $37 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.10 · official $39.10 (match) · 87 history records