Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:13:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
49 0x4967…340b sports 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%40W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$62
14 days+$52
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$23
other 11% +$2
crypto 4% −$12
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +34.8% +22.0% 57% 53% +7.7%
≤30d 48 +6.3% -3.8% 48% 46% -5.9%
≤90d 99 -2.4% -11.7% 40% 39% -7.7%
all 99 -2.4% -11.7% 40% 39% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 39% -7.7%
10% -20.2% 36% -16.5%
15% -27.9% 35% -24.6%
20% -34.9% 31% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses40 / 59
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage46d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $40 +$6 +14%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $75 +$5 +7%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$4 -79%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$7 +73%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$7 +73%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 +$5 +517%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $10 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $35 +$13 +38%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $4 +$12 +291%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $5 −$4 -75%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $6 +$8 +128%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $6 +$4 +62%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$7 -71%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $7 +$3 +47%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -51%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $4 +$9 +226%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $3 +$4 +158%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$2 -40%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$7 +139%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$6 -66%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $10 −$5 -53%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $14 +$6 +45%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 +$7 +43%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $4 +$4 +97%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $7 −$7 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $5 +$5 +97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $11 −$11 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 24 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 24 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos SELL OG 100¢ $46 15m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $10 51m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY OG 87¢ $40 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 2 Winner SELL Esport Academy Copenhagen 100¢ $39 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 2 Winner BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 77¢ $30 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 8h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $75 8h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 8h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 8h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 8h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 15h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $10 28h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 40h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 41h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $18 42h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $48 42h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 56¢ $10 43h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 43h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 72¢ $35 45h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 43¢ $5 46h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 1¢ $0 46h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 19¢ $2 46h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 12¢ $1 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 46¢ $5 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 20¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.88 · official $9.88 (match) · 185 history records