trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +2.8% | -7.0% | 100% | 0% | -6.3% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +2.8% | -7.0% | 100% | 0% | -6.3% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +3.7% | -6.2% | 100% | 12% | -5.7% |
| all | 13 | -12.9% | -21.2% | 85% | 8% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.2% | 8% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -28.8% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -35.7% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -42.0% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? | Yes | 97¢ | 99¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? | Yes | 95¢ | 96¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Man on Fire" be the top global Netflix show this week? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? | Jun 11 | $4 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 55°F or below on April | May 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Ap | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 10 | $4 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Apr 11 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Apr 11 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | Apr 11 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? | Feb 04 | $10,087 | +$10 | +0% |
| Solana Up or Down - February 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET | Feb 04 | $14 | −$14 | -99% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? | Feb 04 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 04 | $1 | $0 | +2% |