Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
49 0x496b…f9c6 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+7%) realized +$55 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.1% -7.6% 33% 33% +7.9%
≤30d 3 +2.1% -7.6% 33% 33% +7.9%
≤90d 3 +2.1% -7.6% 33% 33% +7.9%
all 3 +2.1% -7.6% 33% 33% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 33% +7.9%
10% -16.5% 33% -2.4%
15% -24.5% 33% -11.9%
20% -31.9% 33% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$40 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 26¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Brazil 18¢ 18¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Australia to score first vs. United States? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$105 +206%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $91 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $31 5h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $31 5h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 5h
Australia to score first vs. United States? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 32h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.43 · official $178.43 (match) · 9 history records