Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

49 0x496b…79a8 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$825 (+15%) realized +$825 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate62%15W / 9L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown14%max

Avg bet$227per market

Trades / day21.2pace

Fees−$59est.

Kalshi-fit92%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$142

7 days+$987

14 days+$968

30 days+$968

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)-10.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-7.7%	-16.5%	58%	50%	+7.8%
≤30d	24	-0.6%	-10.1%	62%	54%	+6.6%
≤90d	24	-0.6%	-10.1%	62%	54%	+6.6%
all	24	-0.6%	-10.1%	62%	54%	+6.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover21.2 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-10.1%	54%	+6.6%
10% ← realistic here	-18.7%	42%	-3.6%
15%	-26.5%	33%	-12.9%
20%	-33.7%	17%	-21.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

13% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +6% → late -8% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$91 vs −$43 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$825

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses15 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Est. fees paid−$59

Open positions0

Markets (closed)24 / 24

History coverage9d

Avg bet$227

Trades / day21.2

Drawdown14%

Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 24 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$1,437	+$240	+17%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	−$98	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$716	+$284	+40%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$1,115	+$136	+12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$700	+$416	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 11	$100	−$100	-100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 10	$589	+$209	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 10	$96	−$62	-65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Jun 10	$104	−$17	-16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Jun 10	$104	−$51	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Jun 10	$63	+$4	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Jun 10	$36	+$24	+67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 10	$13	+$8	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Jun 10	$43	−$43	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Jun 10	$53	+$4	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Jun 09	$21	+$6	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Jun 09	$21	+$10	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Jun 08	$41	−$10	-24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 08	$10	+$5	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Jun 08	$11	+$3	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Jun 08	$21	−$10	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 08	$21	$0	-1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 08	$11	+$7	+69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 08	$10	+$1	+12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	91¢	$1,003	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	93¢	$29	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	93¢	$250	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	93¢	$10	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	93¢	$91	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	93¢	$46	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	93¢	$66	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	93¢	$183	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	78¢	$1,437	1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	14¢	$101	23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	71¢	$716	2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	SELL Germany	64¢	$1,249	3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	SELL Germany	83¢	$1	3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	61¢	$293	3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	54¢	$821	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	62¢	$700	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$0	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$0	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$0	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$0	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$0	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$0	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$0	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$0	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$0	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$0	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$0	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$0	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records