Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
49 0x496d…7fbb other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$194 (+15%) realized +$275 · open −$81
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$332now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$271
7 days+$408
14 days+$414
30 days+$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$71
sports 22% +$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +77.2% +60.3% 89% 78% +46.4%
≤30d 14 +38.3% +25.1% 64% 57% +23.1%
≤90d 14 +38.3% +25.1% 64% 57% +23.1%
all 14 +38.3% +25.1% 64% 57% +23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.1% 57% +23.1%
10% +13.1% 57% +11.3%
15% +2.2% 57% +0.5%
20% -7.8% 50% -9.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +59% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$21 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.86 per $1 lost it wins $3.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$332
Realized+$275
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 21
History coverage19d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 52¢ $411 $331 −$80 (-20%)
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -39%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $279 +$140 +50%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $46 +$45 +97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $69 +$51 +73%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $11 +$16 +146%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 +$28 +54%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$42 +226%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $146 −$92 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $27 −$10 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$3 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes $0 0m
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes $2 1m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $144 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $272 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes $3 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $279 16h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $46 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 27h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $11 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $69 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 94¢ $81 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 93¢ $80 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY $4 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Spain wi BUY 25¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $52 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $18 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 35¢ $8 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AN BUY $10 6d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England ( BUY $10 6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $10 8d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes $53 15d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $4 15d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $16 15d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $35 16d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $91 16d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $1 16d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.62 · official $337.95 · 56 history records