Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x496f…fa5d
weather · 277 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$152 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$145 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$414
Realized−$145
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses180 / 131
Open positions29
Markets (closed)311 / 277
History coverage7d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day498.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 29 History 311 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$384
7 days−$145
14 days−$145
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Yes 32¢ 29¢ $39 $35 −$4 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $37 $34 −$3 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $22 $29 +$7 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Yes 32¢ 25¢ $31 $24 −$7 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $23 $16 −$7 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Yes 33¢ 44¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $12 $14 +$3 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $12 $10 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$2 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Yes 22¢ 32¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? No 83¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 11? Jun 14 $3 +$6 +197%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on May 5? Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 15? Jun 14 $13 −$17 -131%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C on May 19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 13? Jun 14 $4 −$6 -126%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 5? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 5? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on May 4? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 18? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on May 31? Jun 14 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 31? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 11? Jun 14 $11 +$28 +249%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 28? Jun 14 $1 +$23 +3875%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 26? Jun 14 $14 −$25 -177%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 17? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 16? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +372%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 18? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +230%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 5? Jun 14 $6 −$9 -140%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ma Jun 14 $6 −$6 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 16? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +171%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 19? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 19? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 12? Jun 14 $1 −$6 -1124%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 5? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 14 $2 −$8 -530%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 23? Jun 14 $4 −$5 -123%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 19? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 5? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 18? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 5? Jun 14 $22 −$18 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 18? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on May 19? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 1? Jun 14 $4 −$7 -209%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 7? Jun 14 $9 −$18 -194%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on May 19? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 6? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 18? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 13? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 19? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 10? Jun 14 $21 −$19 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 26? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 46°C on May 18? Jun 14 $19 −$16 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 19? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 45°C on May 18? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on May 18? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 23? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 1? Jun 14 $1 −$5 -911%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 76¢ $2 5m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 80¢ $4 8m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 9m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 29¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 57m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 311 +9.7% -0.8% 58% 40% -12.5%
≤30d 311 +9.7% -0.8% 58% 40% -12.5%
≤90d 311 +9.7% -0.8% 58% 40% -12.5%
all 311 +9.7% -0.8% 58% 40% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover498.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.8% 40% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -10.3% 26% -20.9%
15% -18.9% 17% -28.5%
20% -26.9% 9% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.76 · official $413.77 (match) · 3500 history records