Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:41:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
49 0x4972…258a crypto 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,124per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,085now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$23
14 days+$11
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-50.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 19 -31.5% -38.0% 68% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 24 -45.7% -50.9% 54% 0% -9.5%
all 24 -45.7% -50.9% 54% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.9% 0% -9.5%
10% -55.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -59.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -63.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,093) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -50% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$2,085
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage41d
Avg bet$1,124
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,077 $2,080 +$3 (+0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? Jun 24 $2,073 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $2,069 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $2,062 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 22? Jun 23 $2,062 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $2,058 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20? Jun 20 $2,054 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 3? Jun 04 $2,113 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3? Jun 03 $2,109 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2? Jun 02 $2,105 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1? Jun 02 $2,101 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 1? Jun 01 $2,098 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31? Jun 01 $2,093 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on May 30? May 31 $2,088 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27? May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24? May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on May 21? May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 19? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 17? May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15? May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $2,077 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $2,073 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $2,069 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,062 43h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2,062 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $2,058 4d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $2,054 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 16d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $5 17d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $2,113 21d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $2,109 21d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $47 22d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $2,058 22d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $2,101 23d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $2,098 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $2,093 24d
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $2,088 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 28d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 31d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on May 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 36d
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 38d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,085.17 · official $2,085.17 (match) · 40 history records