Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:55:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4973…a6b4 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$6
other 37% +$5
crypto 5% $0
tech 3% $0
politics 2% $0
sports 2% +$1
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 29% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 15 -0.6% -10.1% 27% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 15 -0.6% -10.1% 27% 0% -10.5%
all 30 -1.8% -11.1% 30% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage454d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $49 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $57 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $88 −$5 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $65 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $64 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15-1.19ºC in May 2025? May 27 $12 $0 -1%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? May 22 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 16–23? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $27 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $27 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $17 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $16 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $18 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $6 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $27 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $27 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $24 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $25 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $15 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $15 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $7 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $18 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $25 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $13 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $8 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $29 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $29 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $29 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $29 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $29 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $33 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $33 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $33 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.36 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records