Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x4974…e004
other · 15 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage102d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 0 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $86 $0 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $86 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $87 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $87 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 06 $88 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $88 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $88 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 16 $88 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $176 $0 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 03 $88 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% $0
politics 37% −$1
economics 6% $0
sports 6% $0
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $86 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $86 15h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $86 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $86 10d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $86 15d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $86 15d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $86 24d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $86 25d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 29d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 29d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $87 36d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $87 36d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 56d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 57d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $88 59d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $88 60d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $88 62d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $88 62d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $88 68d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $88 68d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $88 76d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $88 76d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $88 84d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $88 84d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $88 88d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $88 89d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $88 91d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $29 91d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 91d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $88 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records