Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
49 0x4974…8a26 world 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate43%21W / 28L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% $0
politics 18% $0
other 12% +$14
sports 6% +$10
economics 5% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.1% -4.0% 33% 11% -9.6%
≤30d 16 +2.9% -6.9% 31% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 16 +2.9% -6.9% 31% 6% -9.6%
all 49 +4.8% -5.2% 43% 8% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 8% -7.6%
10% -14.3% 6% -16.5%
15% -22.6% 6% -24.5%
20% -30.1% 6% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.04 per $1 lost it wins $8.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses21 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage486d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $83 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $90 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $33 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $35 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $2 $0 -4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $34 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 12 $2 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 11 $1 $0 +11%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 11 $4 $0 -10%
Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Apr 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Ru Apr 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $15 +$15 +94%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? Apr 08 $4 $0 -11%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Apr 02 $21 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 26? Mar 29 $21 $0 +2%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $21 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $21 $0 +1%
Austin Peay vs. Queens Mar 20 $10 +$10 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $38 0m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $40 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $39 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $39 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $0 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $4 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $1 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $28 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records