Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:13:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

49
0x4974…59b9
crypto · 857 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$72 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$69 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses649 / 205
Open positions3
Markets (closed)854 / 857
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day999.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 854 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$69
14 days−$69
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 83¢ 56¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-32%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 0¢ 48¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 76¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$6 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$7 -82%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$6 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$7 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$7 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $6 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 854 +1.4% -8.3% 76% 75% -11.9%
≤30d 854 +1.4% -8.3% 76% 75% -11.9%
≤90d 854 +1.4% -8.3% 76% 75% -11.9%
all 854 +1.4% -8.3% 76% 75% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover999.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 75% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 47% -20.4%
15% -25.1% 6% -28.1%
20% -32.4% 1% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.71 · official $7.35 (match) · 2845 history records