Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4979…afd8 crypto 181 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$253 (-1%) realized −$253 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate27%48W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$11
14 days−$9
30 days−$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$267
other 4% −$9
tech 2% −$5
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$11
world 0% $0
sports 0% +$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +8.6% -1.8% 31% 12% -10.0%
≤30d 63 +7.6% -2.7% 48% 24% -12.5%
≤90d 175 -5.6% -14.6% 27% 11% -10.6%
all 175 -5.6% -14.6% 27% 11% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 11% -10.6%
10% -22.8% 8% -19.2%
15% -30.2% 6% -27.0%
20% -37.1% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$253
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses48 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)175 / 181
History coverage40d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 33¢ 35¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $200 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $490 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $209 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $6 −$1 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $275 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $200 $0 -0%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 19 $2 +$7 +348%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $117 −$12 -10%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $22 −$2 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $250 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $225 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$2 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $180 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $6 +$5 +88%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$7 +136%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $250 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $250 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $250 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $250 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $250 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $433 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1 +$5 +485%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +143%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $1 +$2 +215%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $488 −$243 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $499 −$3 -1%
between 41 and 43 million views Jun 02 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 98¢ $195 9m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $250 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 29h
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 30h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $148 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $182 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $240 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $250 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.42 · official $72.42 (match) · 512 history records