Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:32:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
49 0x497a…cd8b crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$111 (+27%) realized +$140 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%22W / 22L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day85.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$140
14 days+$140
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$32
sports 28% +$100
other 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +12.9% +2.1% 50% 50% +27.2%
≤30d 44 +12.9% +2.1% 50% 50% +27.2%
≤90d 44 +12.9% +2.1% 50% 50% +27.2%
all 44 +12.9% +2.1% 50% 50% +27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.1% 50% +27.2%
10% ← realistic here -7.6% 48% +15.1%
15% -16.6% 48% +3.9%
20% -24.7% 43% -6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$140
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses22 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)44 / 49
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day85.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Over 46¢ 100¢ $25 $54 +$29 (+117%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 41¢ 100¢ $14 $35 +$21 (+144%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 44¢ 100¢ $7 $16 +$9 (+127%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 30¢ 34¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 36¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 23¢ 29¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+25%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 57¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+75%)
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$12 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$23 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$23 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$24 +436%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$6 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$10 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$13 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$21 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $20 +$15 +76%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +119%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $26 +$29 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$9 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -96%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$19 +183%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$9 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $11 1m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $17 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 4m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $48 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 22m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $23 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 52m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.70 · official $147.83 · 86 history records