Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x497b…8d40 other 232 markets active 3h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 218L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$23
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$35
sports 23% −$17
politics 8% −$5
culture 7% −$6
economics 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$7
world 4% −$2
tech 3% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 232 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)232 / 232
History coverage127d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 232 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $334 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $123 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $129 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $336 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $134 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $260 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $166 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $508 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $488 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $307 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $311 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $546 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $113 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $137 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $190 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $413 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $130 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $329 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $730 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $342 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $337 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $262 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $552 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $191 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $287 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $452 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $402 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $131 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $353 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $275 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $345 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $257 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $232 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 5h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 5h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 8h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $52 8h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $52 9h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 11h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $52 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $52 16h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 18h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 19h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 26h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 27h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 33h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 34h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 39h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $53 41h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 42h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 44h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 45h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 46h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $15 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $38 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1277 history records