Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:46:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
49 0x497d…7f68 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 501d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%41W / 11L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$1
other 33% $0
tech 10% $0
politics 8% $0
weather 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 52 +0.2% -9.3% 79% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.28 per $1 lost it wins $4.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

501d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses41 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage501d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? Jan 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? Jan 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? Dec 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $7 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $20 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? Nov 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? Oct 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? Oct 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 04 $29 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Cana Apr 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Apr 01 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Mar 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jagmeet Singh be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $420 - 425b on February 28? Mar 05 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $47 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 31d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 63d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $46 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 91d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $36 92d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 121d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 121d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $40 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $12 149d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $30 150d
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? BUY No 100¢ $9 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? BUY No 100¢ $48 183d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 211d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 211d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $47 211d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $7 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $20 241d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $25 242d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $8 272d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 273d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? BUY No 100¢ $29 273d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $14 301d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $35 302d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $16 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? BUY No 100¢ $29 334d
Solana all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $16 364d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 392d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.46 · official $46.46 (match) · 109 history records