Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:48:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x497e…2dc2 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$118 (+4%) realized +$128 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$32
sports 30% −$146
crypto 9% +$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 46% -7.3%
≤30d 26 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 46% -7.3%
≤90d 26 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 46% -7.3%
all 26 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 46% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 46% -7.3%
10% -26.8% 35% -16.2%
15% -33.9% 27% -24.3%
20% -40.4% 19% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$64 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$128
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage3d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 54¢ $171 $135 −$36 (-21%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 32¢ $53 $79 +$27 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $102 +$18 +17%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $99 −$98 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $40 −$25 -63%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $110 −$74 -67%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $71 +$104 +146%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $53 −$44 -84%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $187 +$93 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$2 -37%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $168 −$86 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $67 −$65 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $180 +$117 +65%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $74 −$73 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 22 $20 +$6 +27%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $69 +$268 +388%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $273 +$32 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $236 +$113 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $175 +$127 +73%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $71 −$66 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $173 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $54 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $99 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $102 17h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $15 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 22¢ $36 19h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $40 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $110 22h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes $9 22h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $53 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $71 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 38h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C SELL Grind Back 100¢ $76 38h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 98¢ $75 38h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C SELL GLYPH $2 38h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C SELL GLYPH $3 38h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 84¢ $93 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 41h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout SELL Execration 95¢ $77 42h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout SELL Execration 95¢ $35 42h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 85¢ $100 44h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $67 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $187 44h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 44h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $74 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $180 47h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $69 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $235 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.04 · official $211.51 · 60 history records