Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4980…5709 crypto 282 markets active 1h ago coverage 591d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$283 (+0%) realized +$135 · open +$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%73W / 205L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1,167est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$760now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 591d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$74
other 18% −$8,079
crypto 8% −$2,895
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.7% -13.8% 17% 17% +48.3%
≤30d 57 +13.7% +2.9% 32% 32% +19.0%
≤90d 125 -5.2% -14.2% 30% 30% -10.3%
all 278 -8.9% -17.5% 26% 26% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 26% -22.8%
10% -25.4% 26% -30.2%
15% -32.6% 24% -36.9%
20% -39.2% 23% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$505 vs −$234 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$760
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$148
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses73 / 205
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,167
Open positions4
Markets (closed)278 / 282
History coverage591d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 278 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B Barça eSports 31¢ 64¢ $155 $322 +$168 (+108%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A BBL Esports 43¢ 42¢ $187 $182 −$5 (-3%)
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C UCAM Esports Club 41¢ 42¢ $123 $128 +$4 (+4%)
Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D Team Liquid Academy 49¢ 42¢ $147 $128 −$20 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 206 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Ame Jun 25 $46 −$44 -97%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 25 $69 −$68 -98%
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag Jun 25 $44 −$43 -98%
Valorant: Barça eSports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group Jun 25 $168 +$791 +472%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 23 $71 −$69 -97%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 23 $241 −$238 -99%
Something to have the most kills Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $1,001 +$2,495 +249%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $677 +$4,622 +683%
D4v41 to have the most kills Jun 21 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 19 $1,141 −$1,114 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $1,056 −$1,044 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $1,656 −$1,626 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $254 −$251 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $1,514 −$1,484 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $91 −$90 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $63 +$141 +224%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $1,938 +$3,056 +158%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1,437 −$1,412 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $385 +$1,613 +419%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $1,739 −$1,717 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $517 +$481 +93%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $186 −$182 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $94 +$155 +165%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $17 −$17 -97%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $139 +$760 +546%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $728 +$1,669 +229%
Will FUT Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 10 $98 −$95 -97%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $1,022 −$1,005 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $255 −$249 -98%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $524 −$519 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $536 −$526 -98%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $840 +$870 +104%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $74 −$72 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $67 −$65 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan Jun 04 $48 −$48 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $210 −$205 -97%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $102 −$99 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $103 −$100 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $126 −$121 -96%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $305 +$262 +86%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $357 −$351 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $253 −$250 -99%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $304 +$232 +76%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $304 −$300 -99%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $125 +$125 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B BUY Barça eSports 31¢ $56 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group BUY BBL Esports 43¢ $135 6h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group BUY BBL Esports 42¢ $38 6h
Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Team Liquid Academy 49¢ $149 6h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY UCAM Esports Club 41¢ $125 6h
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B BUY Barça eSports 31¢ $102 6h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group BUY BBL Esports 41¢ $17 25h
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Ame BUY NRG Academy 3¢ $3 3d
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Ame BUY NRG Academy 3¢ $3 3d
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Ame BUY NRG Academy 7¢ $6 3d
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Ame BUY NRG Academy 7¢ $1 3d
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Ame BUY NRG Academy 8¢ $2 3d
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Ame BUY NRG Academy 8¢ $8 3d
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Ame BUY NRG Academy 8¢ $7 3d
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Ame BUY NRG Academy 8¢ $8 3d
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Ame BUY NRG Academy 8¢ $7 3d
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY Pixel Lumina 6¢ $3 3d
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY Pixel Lumina 6¢ $0 3d
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY Pixel Lumina 6¢ $0 3d
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY Pixel Lumina 8¢ $1 3d
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY Pixel Lumina 8¢ $3 3d
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY Pixel Lumina 10¢ $5 3d
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY Pixel Lumina 12¢ $5 3d
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY Pixel Lumina 12¢ $0 3d
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY Pixel Lumina 12¢ $1 3d
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY Pixel Lumina 12¢ $1 3d
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY Ghools Esports 5¢ $2 3d
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY Ghools Esports 6¢ $2 3d
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY Ghools Esports 6¢ $1 3d
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY Ghools Esports 8¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $759.68 · official $759.68 (match) · 1998 history records