Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:03:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4980…ddcb world 69 markets active 3d ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%23W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$8
politics 24% $0
other 21% $0
sports 4% −$13
economics 4% $0
finance 1% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 +3.7% -6.2% 36% 4% -8.7%
≤90d 62 +1.7% -8.0% 35% 2% -9.1%
all 67 +0.6% -9.0% 34% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.7% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 3% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses23 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage492d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 76¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $44 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $48 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $33 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $24 −$1 -3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $44 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $53 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $5 +$5 +98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $43 +$1 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $81 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $13 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $4 $0 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $95 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -10%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 01 $36 +$2 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $9 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $36 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $76 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $104 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $33 +$2 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $45 +$2 +5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $36 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $33 −$2 -7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $146 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $35 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $69 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $47 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 13 $68 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 11 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $35 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $8 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $44 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $48 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $48 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $33 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $9 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $24 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $16 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $7 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $24 6d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 7d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $6 7d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 9d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 10d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $35 10d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $44 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $33 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 12d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 12d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $0.00 (match) · 272 history records