Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4980…a14c sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 728d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$6,247 (-26%) realized −$6,430 · open +$183
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate59%19W / 13L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$728per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$4,583now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$949
7 days−$949
14 days−$949
30 days−$949
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$7,215
other 6% +$340
world 5% −$6
crypto 4% +$23
economics 2% +$1
tech 0% −$20
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -31.3% -37.8% 43% 29% -47.6%
≤30d 7 -31.3% -37.8% 43% 29% -47.6%
≤90d 11 +5.2% -4.8% 64% 55% -22.0%
all 32 -10.7% -19.2% 59% 31% -42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 31% -42.2%
10% -26.9% 31% -47.7%
15% -34.0% 25% -52.8%
20% -40.5% 22% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$1,000) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$904 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

728d coverage
Net worth$4,583
Realized−$6,430
Unrealized+$183
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses19 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage728d
Avg bet$728
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 49¢ 52¢ $4,400 $4,583 +$183 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $407 −$400 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $407 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $152 +$131 +86%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 21 $1,000 +$16 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$4 +93%
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 11 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $403 +$110 +27%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $707 +$338 +48%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 08 $30 +$30 +101%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Mar 03 $20 −$20 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5 Feb 21 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 21 $2,104 −$2,104 -100%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $2,760 −$2,760 -100%
VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $62 +$70 +113%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $3,173 +$3,578 +113%
Noah FA vs. AZ: O/U 2.5 Feb 20 $348 +$409 +117%
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 18 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5 Feb 18 $1,251 −$1,251 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Feb 18 $37 +$1 +4%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Jan 28 $270 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Dec 16 $270 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 12 $1,207 −$8 -1%
Will Trump formally nominate RFK Jr. to the cabinet? Oct 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election? Oct 12 $7 $0 +3%
Mavericks vs. Thunder Dec 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Eric Adams indicted in 2024? Oct 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday? Sep 26 $10 $0 +3%
Solana above $165 on July 26? Aug 25 $5 +$2 +33%
Court temporarily allows Texas to arrest migrants? Jul 20 $10 −$9 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $1,015 17m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $1,015 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $406 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $1,015 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $1,015 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $102 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $102 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $102 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 36¢ $102 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $102 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 36¢ $102 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 98¢ $1,000 22h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 53¢ $152 22h
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY No 65¢ $101 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 13d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 67¢ $707 43d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 78¢ $101 43d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 78¢ $101 43d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 78¢ $101 43d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 78¢ $101 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 53d
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 75d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 110d
FC Bayern München vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 51¢ $400 119d
FC Bayern München vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,000 119d
FC Bayern München vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,000 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,583.27 · official $4,583.27 (match) · 230 history records