Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:56:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4981…05e6 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 715d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-1%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$54
crypto 21% −$4
politics 10% −$11
tech 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
world 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -37.1% -43.1% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 35 -24.0% -31.2% 51% 9% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 9% -10.9%
10% -37.8% 6% -19.4%
15% -43.8% 6% -27.2%
20% -49.3% 3% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

715d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage715d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 22 $900 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 22 $11 $0 +2%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 20 May 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? May 02 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS Saint-Étienne vs. SC Bastia end in a draw? Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4? Oct 19 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4? Oct 19 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4? Oct 19 $3 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4? Oct 19 $3 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 7-14? Jun 28 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14? Jun 28 $1 $0 +9%
Will Elon tweet 775-799 times March 7-14? Jun 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17? Mar 07 $6 +$11 +170%
Tom Holland and Zendaya engaged in 2025? Jan 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will US add between 100k and 150k jobs in December 2024? Jan 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Will US add between 150k and 200k jobs in December 2024? Jan 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Laura Loomer get her bluecheck back by Friday? Jan 14 $15 +$1 +5%
Scroll airdrop in 2024? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Swell airdrop in 2024? Jan 02 $5 $0 +1%
PartyDAO airdrop in 2024? Jan 02 $101 $0 +0%
Aleo airdrop in 2024? Jan 02 $101 $0 +0%
US GDP declines in Q3 2024? Sep 20 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC? Sep 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 23? Sep 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum above $2,500 on August 23? Sep 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $30-35b one day after launch? Aug 22 $20 $0 -0%
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) greater than $40b one day after launch? Aug 22 $20 $0 -0%
Will a Democrat win California Presidential Election? Aug 22 $500 −$10 -2%
Will Elena Rybakina win Wimbledon Women's? Jul 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France win the 2024 Euros? Jul 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $105 1h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL No 100¢ $899 1h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $900 6d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,498 44d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,498 44d
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 20 BUY No 9¢ $1 50d
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? BUY No 9¢ $1 50d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,500 50d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,500 50d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $11 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 50d
Will AS Saint-Étienne vs. SC Bastia end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $1 190d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 99¢ $15 245d
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft BUY No 10¢ $1 245d
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4? BUY No 97¢ $3 358d
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4? BUY No 99¢ $3 358d
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4? BUY No 96¢ $3 358d
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4? BUY No 99¢ $3 358d
Will Elon tweet 775-799 times March 7-14? BUY No 99¢ $2 471d
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 7-14? BUY No 96¢ $1 471d
Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14? BUY No 92¢ $1 471d
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17? BUY No 37¢ $6 524d
Tom Holland and Zendaya engaged in 2025? BUY No 65¢ $20 535d
Will Laura Loomer get her bluecheck back by Friday? BUY No 95¢ $15 535d
Will US add between 150k and 200k jobs in December 2024? BUY No 73¢ $5 535d
Will US add between 100k and 150k jobs in December 2024? BUY No 85¢ $5 535d
PartyDAO airdrop in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $101 540d
Aleo airdrop in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $101 540d
Swell airdrop in 2024? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 617d
Scroll airdrop in 2024? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 617d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.67 · official $104.67 (match) · 68 history records