Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4982…a445 sports 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-3%) realized −$46 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%46W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$61
14 days−$22
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$17
crypto 12% −$96
other 6% +$8
economics 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +22.3% +10.7% 68% 68% -23.4%
≤30d 32 +4.3% -5.7% 56% 56% -14.7%
≤90d 32 +4.3% -5.7% 56% 56% -14.7%
all 76 +1.0% -8.6% 61% 57% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 57% -17.4%
10% -17.4% 49% -25.3%
15% -25.3% 38% -32.5%
20% -32.7% 25% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses46 / 30
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage246d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 55¢ $64 $66 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $121 −$59 -49%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 +$6 +109%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 +$2 +44%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$12 +114%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$3 +34%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $101 −$81 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$7 +133%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$8 -82%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +83%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$36 +36%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$20 +191%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -82%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -73%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -71%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$7 +129%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 202.5 Jun 09 $5 +$1 +24%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -90%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Brighton vs. West Ham: O/U 2.5 Dec 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Leeds United vs. Liverpool: O/U 2.5 Dec 07 $19 +$17 +89%
Aston Villa vs. Arsenal: O/U 2.5 Dec 06 $9 +$10 +112%
Chelsea vs. Arsenal: O/U 1.5 Nov 30 $5 +$2 +37%
Girona vs. Real Madrid: O/U 2.5 Nov 30 $65 −$65 -100%
Aston Villa vs. Wolves: O/U 2.5 Nov 30 $5 −$4 -78%
Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United: O/U 3.5 Nov 30 $5 +$2 +47%
Manchester City vs. Leeds United: O/U 2.5 Nov 29 $5 +$3 +54%
Bayern München vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 2.5 Nov 29 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 24 $5 +$2 +49%
Leeds United vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 Nov 24 $5 +$6 +117%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $43 +$21 +48%
Nets vs. Celtics Nov 22 $24 −$16 -68%
Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-11-21? Nov 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Lakers Nov 19 $22 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $61 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $62 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $4 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $121 12h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 30h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $5 30h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 30h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 43h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 8¢ $2 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $1 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $10 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 66¢ $30 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.81 · official $65.81 (match) · 153 history records