Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
49 0x4983…eda0 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$41 (+14%) realized +$47 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$43
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +30.4% +18.0% 44% 44% +12.6%
≤30d 16 +30.4% +18.0% 44% 44% +12.6%
≤90d 16 +30.4% +18.0% 44% 44% +12.6%
all 16 +30.4% +18.0% 44% 44% +12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.0% 44% +12.6%
10% ← realistic here +6.7% 44% +1.8%
15% -3.6% 44% -8.0%
20% -13.0% 44% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 20¢ 8¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$24 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$12 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$14 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $18 +$48 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$17 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$12 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $17 −$16 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $33 +$29 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$18 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$12 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$23 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $15 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $65 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $18 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $18 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $28 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.96 · official $14.96 · 38 history records