Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:40:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
49 0x4984…57f1 crypto 283 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$412 (-33%) realized −$279 · open −$149
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%267W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$0
14 days+$34
30 days−$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$119
other 30% −$313
crypto 22% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 272 +1.0% -8.6% 97% 1% -9.5%
≤30d 280 -0.6% -10.1% 95% 2% -34.1%
≤90d 280 -0.6% -10.1% 95% 2% -34.1%
all 280 -0.6% -10.1% 95% 2% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -34.1%
10% -18.7% 1% -40.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -46.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$29 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$279
Unrealized−$149
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses267 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)280 / 283
History coverage22d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 16¢ $187 $35 −$153 (-82%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 78¢ 92¢ $16 $18 +$3 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 0¢ 84¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Sprint World Record Broken? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Ben Proud win the 50m freestyle at the 2026 Enhanced Games? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Freestyle World Record Broken? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $181 $0 −$181 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Enhanced Games: Fred Kerley 100m Sprint Time Under 9.76? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Enhanced Games: Men’s 50m Butterfly World Record Broken? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.73 · official $53.61 (match) · 582 history records