Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:04:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
49 0x4985…28bd other 85 markets active 3h ago coverage 621d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$37,610 (+5%) realized +$37,551 · open +$59
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate62%52W / 32L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$8,098per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$37,578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$15,823
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$217
other 31% +$25,694
politics 19% +$4,602
economics 6% +$168
sports 4% +$2,429
crypto 3% +$1,610
culture 1% +$1,197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +124.4% +103.1% 100% 100% +88.2%
≤90d 13 +5.2% -4.9% 62% 46% +30.4%
all 84 -9.5% -18.1% 62% 20% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 20% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 19% -12.8%
15% -33.1% 15% -21.3%
20% -39.6% 14% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$8,866) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,568 vs −$1,428 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

621d coverage
Net worth$37,578
Realized+$37,551
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses52 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage621d
Avg bet$8,098
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 99¢ 100¢ $37,518 $37,578 +$59 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 31 $3,716 +$5,861 +158%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $10,928 +$9,962 +91%
Will United States win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 28 $165 −$162 -98%
World Championships: Denmark vs. Slovakia May 21 $882 −$881 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $2,490 −$1,332 -54%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $480 +$111 +23%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $1,541 +$1,971 +128%
World Championships: Great Britain vs. Austria May 16 $558 +$1 +0%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 15 $3,145 +$1,220 +39%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 14 $2,100 $0 -0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $2,354 +$20 +1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 May 09 $310 +$85 +27%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 11 $3,284 −$3,284 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $1,660 −$1,647 -99%
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at t Mar 16 $2,680 +$2,575 +96%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $4,976 −$4,976 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? Feb 28 $4,969 +$31 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 26 $34,189 +$310 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $33,766 +$454 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 24 $32,802 +$165 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 23 $32,868 +$132 +0%
Will Germany record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 22 $3 $0 +2%
Will "Hamnet" win Outstanding British Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? Feb 22 $125 −$125 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $24,800 +$50 +0%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? Feb 22 $113 −$113 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $31,268 +$2,742 +9%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 20 $9,742 +$108 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 19 $3,898 +$102 +3%
Will China record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 18 $8,803 +$112 +1%
Men's Group B - Slovakia vs. Finland Feb 11 $930 +$2,597 +279%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-28? Feb 05 $2,673 +$4,010 +150%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $6,903 +$199 +3%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-23? Jan 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-01-23? Jan 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-01-20? Jan 21 $439 +$1,650 +376%
Will Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Jan 20 $278 −$278 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential Jan 19 $499 +$499 +100%
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presid Jan 19 $3,886 +$14 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 18 $11,433 +$85 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 13 $9,845 +$155 +2%
Will ANO form a government after Czech election ? Dec 12 $8,799 +$66 +1%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Dec 10 $7,001 −$1,330 -19%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 05 $4,399 +$156 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $24,314 +$633 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $29,600 +$40 +0%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31? Oct 13 $7,317 +$76 +1%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Sep 11 $6,609 +$374 +6%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September meeting? Sep 11 $77 −$77 -100%
Ethereum all time high before 2026? Aug 23 $14,839 +$2,282 +15%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 15 $662 +$20 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 99¢ $855 5h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $21 4d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $55 5d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $56 5d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $52 5d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $55 5d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $46 5d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $67 5d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $53 5d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $40 5d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $48 5d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $47 5d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $60 5d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $154 5d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $50 5d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $47 5d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $41 5d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,577.75 · official $37,577.75 (match) · 2056 history records